Check out all of the details of this month's Patch Notes, featuring the Reflections: Reforged update!

https://mabinogi.nexon.net/news/69963/reflections-reforged-patch-notes-november-4th-2021

https://mabinogi.nexon.net/news/69963/reflections-reforged-patch-notes-november-4th-2021

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Blortad

Mabinogi Rep: 2,190

Posts: 250

Member
in General Chat

So I saw this amazing bag is a possible reward from the fishing event, so I decided to go check the wiki to see what events it was given in before and I saw that it supposedly drops from old fishing traps from the winter fishing event! I just so happen to have like 800 of those rotting in my inventory! I would have opened those so much sooner if I knew. Now if this maintenance will end soon, I can go open my masses of ancient event boxes and probably not get the bag, YAY!

## Comments

Not a single one gave me a black bag

Not only that, but I have never seen ANYONE getting the bag and brag about it on the forums, which is very suspicious... I can bet my thunder bird that the chances of getting that bag is below 1%

I rest my case.

Only 500? Jeez I lost count on how many I opened during that event. I'd say at least 4000 here. Didn't get a single bag :<

My husband got one. I was sad. I'm over it now though. I have inventory space.

One does not simply get optimistic just cuz black blag is on the reward list...Opened

~~(OLD BAIT)~~10k+ and someone I know did 30k+...nada.nope.zip.gifWe count the items from the jar.

80 items are listed on the main page (correct me if I'm wrong)

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

X being the number of items.

Y the number you open.

Or simple

(1/80)^1= 0.01

That's assuming every item is weighted the same, which it isn't. The formula gets crazy when it needs to account for that.

And that's decimal, there'd be a 1.25% chance of obtaining it if all are equally weighted.

And that's where the Combinations with adjusted binomial distribution comes in. Basically, what u have to do is come up with a combinations formula counting the more common items multiple times to account for the alterations in weight to the droprate. From there we can make adjustments based on samples we get from players and zero in on the actual weights on the items. Once we have the weights of the items to a semi-accurate degree we can do another Combinations formula to find the number of combinations that contain a black bag in any given sample size and render that into a percentage. I linked to the same thing in the last droprate discussion, so here it is again, the Wikipedia page for Combinations. I tried to figure this out last time with the Caraseks bag, but it became far beyond me when I got to finding the number of k-combinations accounting for various hiccups like combinations containing multiple instances of a repeat that was added to the list for weight adjustment. Someone said last time that Binomial distribution was the answer, but it was a bit beyond anyone that visited the Carasek thread.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combination

http://forums.mabinogi.nexon.net/discussion/14973/anyone-gotten-a-black-bag-yet/p1

http://forums.mabinogi.nexon.net/discussion/14943/fishing-event/p1

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